The Colts Sold Quenton Nelson And Taped A Not For Sale Sign On Jonathan Taylor
The 2-5 Colts traded guard Quenton Nelson to the Seahawks and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the 49ers on Tuesday, and Adam Schefter says ownership does not want to trade Jonathan Taylor. Neighbors, the best man in front of the running back just left, and I think the running back stays.
Filed Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 9:22 AM CDT from Southern Kentucky
Friends, every yard sale in southern Kentucky has one item with masking tape on it that reads NOT FOR SALE. It is usually a recliner, and the argument about it is still going on in the kitchen.
On Tuesday the 2-5 Colts held one. They traded guard Quenton Nelson to the Seahawks for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick, the @Colts announced, and sent defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the 49ers for a 2027 fourth-round pick, per the team.
Adam Schefter listed Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs as other potential trade targets. Taylor is the one with the masking tape. @UnderdogNFL posted, "Schefter: Colts ownership doesn't want to trade Jonathan Taylor." Schefter said it on The Pat McAfee Show and guessed that the Colts keep him.
On Oct. 19, I wrote that "when a team starts talking about urgency, you bring the porch furniture inside." Eight days later the Colts started selling the furniture. Chief wrote that he would hold every Colt he rosters "until the usage changes." Nobody has played a down since the sale, so Taylor's usage has not changed.
The Men In Front Of Him
Neighbors, I have always told you to watch the men in front of the running back, and the Colts just sold the best one. PFF credits Quenton Nelson with zero sacks allowed on 275 pass-block snaps this season and a 94.4% pass block win rate. Jeremy Fowler wrote that Nelson "will help steady the Seahawks’ running game."
Fantasy analyst Andrew Cooper named the fear: "The obvious nightmare scenario for Jonathan Taylor is that the Colts trade Quenton Nelson but then don't trade Taylor so he's now still on a bad team with a worse line".
In my warehouse years, the company sold our best forklift, and the same crew worked the same hours with every pallet taking longer. I call it the forklift rule: when a team sells the blockers, the running back's price drops that afternoon, and the carries drop later, if they drop at all.
When a team sells the blockers, the running back's price drops first. Wait for the carries before you sell.
Read The Money
When an owner's wish runs into a good argument, I read the money. Spotrac figures a Taylor trade would leave the Colts with $10.7 million in dead cap this season and $10 million in 2027. The buyer would take on $5.5 million this season ($4.8 million guaranteed), $16 million in 2027 and $17.9 million in 2028.
His 2027 salary is guaranteed for injury now and fully on Feb. 19. Nobody wrote that post for a microphone, which makes it the most honest document in this story. Selling a guard takes a phone call. Eating $20.7 million of dead cap takes a meeting, and the only date on that page comes after the deadline.
The Case For Selling Him
Joel A. Erickson wrote this morning that "it’s hard to see why the Colts would keep Jonathan Taylor," since his timeline does not match the team's. Tom Pelissero reports the two trades cleared over $17.7 million in cash and cap space, and expects "a major rebuild under a new GM in 2027."
Mike Chappell, who covers the Colts, noted that "he'll be 28 next season w/300 more carries on his body." Chappell's verdict: "To me, that's not a building block."
Stephen Holder called Taylor "easily the Colts’ most valuable asset" on Oct. 25 and reported hearing talk of a second-round pick being a possibility. Erickson and Chappell make a strong case. I still think Taylor probably stays.
Chief, I have been to a pawnshop at closing time. The clerk will sell anything in the case except the item the owner said to keep, and that item waits for the owner. Pro Football Rumors reported that Carlie Irsay-Gordon "is not believed to want the All-Pro RB to be dealt".
My father raised me on Cleveland football, so I have a gift for predicting that a good player stays on a 2-5 team. Here is my call. Jonathan Taylor will still be a Colt when the trade deadline passes on Nov. 10.
It leans on Schefter's report and the dead cap. If I am wrong, Chief will tell you before I can.
What I Am Doing About It
- I am holding Taylor and starting him. Chappell has him averaging 83.9 yards per game, on pace for 1,426. That production is my floor until a game says otherwise.
- I am lowering his ceiling one notch. He has gone 14 straight games without 100 yards, though he has reached 90 five times this season, per Chappell. A worse line makes the last 10 yards harder. I will not sell him at a line-discount price.
- Week 8 against Jacksonville is the first test. It is his first game since the Colts traded Nelson. I am watching his carries first and his yards second, as the forklift rule says.
- In dynasty, I take Chappell's point. If I were rebuilding, I would listen to offers for a back who will be 28 next season. I would not sell into the rumor. Deadline season is when every lowball offer shows up dressed as a favor.
- I revisit on Nov. 10. When the deadline passes, either the masking tape held or it did not.
Gordy's Verdict
Hold Jonathan Taylor and keep starting him, with his ceiling one notch lower. Refuse line-discount offers. Watch his carries against Jacksonville in Week 8. In dynasty, listen if you are rebuilding, and do not sell into the rumor. My call: Jonathan Taylor will still be a Colt when the trade deadline passes on Nov. 10. Revisit that day.
Chief’s Rebuttal
Unsolicited, as always
Gordy went to a fire sale and came home with a rule named after a forklift, which is the most romantic thing he has done all year. Folks, I concede the money and the line. The dead cap is real, an All-Pro guard now blocks for Seattle, and Gordy put a date on his call, so we can grade him on Nov. 10. But a team that sold two cornerstones in one day can sell a third, and an owner's wish carries no dead cap. I managed a sports bar once. The bottle with the do-not-touch note on it was always the first one I poured.
Keep Digging
Baker Mayfield Set A Deadline And Then Walked Straight Past It
He said the deal had to be done by camp. Camp came. He reported anyway, on exactly the terms he said he wanted to avoid, and Tampa handed him a reworked year instead of the extension. Folks, this is what declining to use your leverage buys you.
The Coach Said The Quiet Part Out Loud, On The Record, Into A Microphone
Klint Kubiak volunteered that a Day 1 starter is not necessarily a Week 17 starter. Fernando Mendoza took second-team reps for the first time. Then the rookie threw a would-be pick six. Folks, all three of those things are true at once.
The Raiders Drafted A Franchise Quarterback And Immediately Hid Him In A Closet
Fernando Mendoza is signed, healthy and on the roster. Kirk Cousins is taking the first-team reps. Veterans report tomorrow and Las Vegas is already telling on itself.