A.J. Brown Played 49 Snaps And Caught Three Passes. I Am Buying The Snaps.

Degenerates, it is Friday morning outside Tulsa, and the bourbon stays in the cabinet, because a man should hear his own sentencing sober. Last night Yahoo Fantasy asked, "How are you feeling, A.J. Brown fantasy managers?" I can speak for one of them. I feel like the man who told the rest of you to start him.

Last Saturday, I told you to start Brown as a WR2 against the Jets, and in dynasty to "buy him this weekend at the IR discount." Gordy said to "revisit after Thursday's game against the Bears." It is Friday, and my first witness is me.

The Part Where I Score Myself

Two games since IR, per Yahoo Fantasy: 16 targets, 6 catches, 75 yards, no touchdowns and 10.5 fantasy points. In last night's 30-24 loss at Chicago, he had 3 catches for 48 yards, per Reiss.

Graff noted during the game that Brown was targeted on the first play and that Maye "hasn't gone his way on any of the following 15 dropbacks." His first catch, an 18-yarder per Kyed, came with 3 seconds left in the half, per Daniels.

Against the Jets, he had multiple drops, and afterward he said, per Daniels, "No excuses… Ankle or not, I should make those plays." No excuses from me either. My start call against the Jets went badly for everybody who followed it. Put it on my tab. Unlike the one from 2014, I am paying this one in public.

Why The Prosecution Is Still Buying

Members of the jury, plenty of managers spent Thursday night yelling at their phones. I spent Friday morning reading snap counts.

Exhibit A: the snaps. Reiss has Brown at 49, tops among Patriots receivers, on a season-low 54 offensive snaps. At halftime, Nate Jahnke had him at 30 of 30 plays, and the next receiver had 19.

Exhibit B: the attention. Brown said, per Reiss, "They were trying to take me away early on." And per @PatriotsCLNS: "I get a lot of attention, teams try and take me away and it gives a lot of opportunities for other guys to make plays."

Exhibit C: the volume. Perry counted 11 targets for Brown against the Jets, which he says "would be 34 percent of Drake Maye's passes." Folks, I measure trust in footballs.

Exhibit D: the quarterback. Before Thursday's game, Maye said, per Kyed, "It's A.J. Brown. Last week is what it is. I wish I had some throws back and attempts I targeted his way." He is offering to split the check.

Exhibit E: the work. On Thursday, Reiss reported that Brown arrived "on the early/early bus, four hours before kickoff" and later found him "with the tennis balls, à la Julian Edelman."

I learned this across a pawnshop counter in Oklahoma, where the man in a hurry sets the price. I call it the pawnshop rule.

The box score sets the price. The snap count sets the value.

The Evidence Against Me, Printed In Full

Gordy will look for these, so I am handing them over first. Against the Jets, per Next Gen Stats via Kyed, Brown's "30.0% catch rate, -36.4% catch rate over expected and 6.3% success rate were all the lowest marks by a player with at least 10 targets in a game this season."

Kyed noted the multiple drops against the Jets, then added: "He had just five combined over the past two seasons." I would love to call that a fluke. Two games will not let me.

Andrew Callahan wrote last night that "A.J. Brown needs to step up". And Kyed wrote that Brown "felt he drew extra attention in another quiet performance Thursday." The word "another" is the one that stings.

Exhibit A carries an asterisk: Reiss noted Romeo Doubs' absence left the receiver group short-handed, and a thin room hands out snaps.

Gordy, a falling price on a man who just played 49 of 54 snaps is my favorite kind. Last week you paid for the ankle. This week you pay less for the ankle plus two quiet games, and the role still comes with him.

So here is my call, on the record. A.J. Brown will have a 100-yard receiving game for the Patriots before the end of November. If he does not, I will be back here eating it in public, same as today.

What I Am Doing About It

1. In dynasty and rest-of-season leagues, I am still buying, and he just got cheaper. The discount now covers the IR stint and two quiet games. He still led the receivers in snaps Thursday.
2. In redraft, I keep him and start him as a WR3 or flex until the targets turn into catches. That is a demotion from the WR2 I sold you last week.
3. I am not dropping him in any format. If a manager in your league wants out, ask what Brown costs today.
4. Drake Maye stays in my lineup. I like a quarterback who wants his throws back, and Andrew Callahan wrote that Maye "found a rhythm getting to backyard ball" Thursday.

I am a Raiders fan, folks. I have been buying back into heartbreak every fall since grade school, and the bourbon has never once asked me to stop.