Baker Mayfield's Thumb Faces A Wednesday Test. Tampa's Third Downs Failed Theirs First.

Folks, the bourbon is on standby this Wednesday morning outside Tulsa, because Tampa will hold the most cross-examined practice in football today. Baker Mayfield, out three games with a dislocated thumb, is set to practice for the first time since the injury. As I type this, nobody has reported on that practice yet.

Some fans online have already crowned undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels the future, and a few have the veteran traded. Everybody else is treating today as a referendum on the quarterback. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, the numbers say this offense was failing on third down while Mayfield was still playing. Let me walk you through it.

What The Bucs Said Before Practice

On Monday, Jenna Laine reported that coach Todd Bowles said Mayfield is supposed to practice Wednesday and they will "take a good look at him there." Greg Auman reported that Bowles called Wednesday important for evaluating the thumb, while initial game planning goes forward as if Daniels starts again.

By Tuesday afternoon, Laine reported the Bucs were game planning "as if Jalon Daniels will start Sunday at Carolina" and holding the weekly QB media availability "until Thursday for clarity." So the team watches the thumb today and talks tomorrow.

Exhibit A Is A Third-Down Chart

At 8:02 this morning, Auman wrote: "You might think part of this third-down dropoff is Baker Mayfield missing 3 games with his thumb injury. It isn't." Then he showed his work. "Three games with Mayfield: 14/43 on third downs, 33 percent conversions." And: "Three games with Daniels: 18/44 on third downs, 41 percent conversions."

Read that again, folks. Tampa converted a third of its third downs with the veteran at quarterback and did better with the rookie. When the thumb is ready, Mayfield comes back to an offense that was already stalling. A clean Wednesday would be great news for the thumb, and the third-down problem would still be waiting in the meeting room.

Auman said as much about the whole offense on Monday. He wrote that it "wasn't good under Grizzard and got only more predictable as the year progressed." On offensive coordinator Zac Robinson: "Robinson has had an undrafted rookie at QB for half his games, so that's an asterisk on things as well. Not good either way."

That gives me a rule for the whole week, and I am calling it the third-down rule.

When an offense stalls with two quarterbacks, quit putting the quarterback on trial.

The Evidence I Owe The Defense

Now the part that hurts. Rick Stroud summed up Sunday: "Bucs blow a 16-3 lead in the fourth quarter to lose to the Steelers in OT as Jalon Daniels throws two INTs." Auman's half-by-half stats show "Jalon Daniels 1st: 11-for-18, 62, TD" and then "Jalon Daniels 2nd: 11-for-25, 102, 2 INTs".

It ended 26-19 in overtime, with Jalen Ramsey blitzing and sacking Daniels on fourth down. The Bucs are 1-5, "alone at bottom of NFC South standings." And small samples cut both ways. The rookie's 41 percent comes from three games, the same as the veteran's 33.

Gordy, I sold used trucks for a living, and I always disclosed the brakes. I printed those interceptions myself. They cost Tampa a game. My case covers six games of third downs, and the worse three-game stretch came with the veteran at quarterback. One bad half from a rookie leaves that number right where it was.

None of this is a knock on the kid. Daniels swapped jerseys with Aaron Rodgers, whom the @Buccaneers called "his childhood hero", and @NFLonCBS showed him "celebrating his touchdown pass with Baker Mayfield". A rookie who celebrates with the man whose job the internet keeps handing him is a rookie I root for.

Auman says Daniels is the first undrafted rookie QB to throw a touchdown pass against the Steelers since Bill Demory in 1973, setting aside a 1987 strike replacement. Laine noted Sunday made three straight games with a touchdown pass. Three games crown nobody, though, and one Wednesday practice settles nothing.

What I Am Doing About It

1. I am not planning to start Mayfield until the Bucs name a starter. The team is game planning for Daniels, and its QB availability waits until Thursday. If you roster Mayfield, line up a backup today.
2. In superflex and 2QB leagues, I am taking a cheap dart on Daniels. His team is planning around him this week, and Tampa converted more third downs with him at quarterback. A dart is a bet on a ceiling. If the Bucs go back to Mayfield, the dart sits.
3. I do not rate this offense on a quarterback change alone. The third-down trouble showed up with the veteran at quarterback, so his return earns nobody else here a promotion from me.
4. I wait for the Wednesday report and Thursday's availability before I set anything. Bowles wants to see Mayfield practice before he decides, and so do I.

I am a Raiders fan, folks. I have held a quarterback referendum in my living room every fall since grade school, and the bourbon has won every one of them.