J.J. McCarthy Built His Case From 24 Points Down. Sunday, The Score Starts At Zero.

Friends, John Harbaugh changed quarterbacks this week the way a good mechanic swaps a part, without a speech. He met with his quarterbacks one on one Tuesday, and per Jordan Raanan, "Most of the players found out as they went over the game plan." I have rarely liked a coach more for saying less.

Sunday against the Texans is J.J. McCarthy's first start as a Giant, and parts of the internet are already pricing him like a franchise quarterback off one quarter of football. I would like to see the other three first.

What Harbaugh Actually Said

On Wednesday afternoon, Raanan posted Harbaugh's words: "We will be starting J.J. (McCarthy) in the game" against the Texans. Jameis Winston moves to backup.

Later that day, Raanan reported that McCarthy is the starter "for the foreseeable future." Harbaugh's explanation, per @AroundTheNFL: "J.J.'s got a skill set that we can take advantage of, and we're excited to see what we can do with it."

The Quarter Everybody Is Pricing

The case for McCarthy fits in one quarter. Per Raanan, he "threw for 243 yards and led 3 scoring drives in the fourth quarter alone." The Giants still lost 34-27 to the Saints and fell to 3-2-1. His first touchdown pass as a Giant was a 24-yard strike to Isaiah Likely.

When he came in, Raanan wrote, "This is his preseason down 24 in the fourth quarter." Asked about the 243 yards after the game, McCarthy answered right away: "Didn't get the win though." I was raised on Browns football, and I have never heard a better summary of a box score.

Earlier this week, Dan Duggan asked whether that fourth quarter "was real" or the product of "desperation time?" I believe every one of those yards. I doubt how far they travel.

Down 24 late, an offense throws because it has to, and a defense with a big lead will usually trade yards for clock. A first start is a different job, a full game with a script from the first snap.

In my warehouse years, a new hire once moved more freight in the last hour of a Friday than anybody on the crew, with the trucks late and nobody checking the stacks. He was good. I still watched him work a Monday before I gave him a raise. I call it the co-author rule, and you may borrow it.

Every stat line built from 24 down has a co-author, and it is the scoreboard.

Why I Expect A Narrower Plan Sunday

The receivers are the first reason. Art Stapleton reported that, aside from some sideline tosses, McCarthy's first reps with Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely came in that fourth quarter. By McCarthy's own account, per Raanan, he "had barely even thrown to Nabers prior to the Saints game."

So he stayed after Wednesday's practice, and Duggan saw him throwing with Nabers, Darnell Mooney and Malachi Fields. That is good homework. Timing takes more than one night of it.

The second is the QB coach. Last Friday, Raanan asked Brian Callahan whether McCarthy was ready for a full workload, if necessary. Callahan said you would make sure he has "a good solid amount of plays that he feels great about", and that "there may be some things that he's a little bit newer, too, that you stay away from."

The Receipts Against My Own Case

Raanan says Harbaugh thought it was "a pretty obvious move" because it was the "right time." In that same Friday answer, Callahan added, "I feel pretty good about him being able to operate a game plan at this point."

Jeremy Fowler says McCarthy "provided a spark with his arm and his legs" and that "New York is counting on his mobility to help the offense." Of everything in that fourth quarter, the legs travel best, because running pays in any game script.

Raanan reports McCarthy is honored but "not surprised" and feels more ready to start than he did in Minnesota. "Experience does wonders," he said. And Stapleton wrote, "Giants played their two worst games in Washington and vs. Saints." His next line: "Still two games up in L column."

That is a strong case, neighbors, and I want the record to show I printed all of it.

Chief, I agree the arm is real and the job is his, which should worry us both. I am pricing the first quarter Sunday, at 0-0, and Callahan already told us how a plan for McCarthy would start. Fantasy points come out of the plan.

What I Am Doing About It

1. In superflex and 2QB leagues, McCarthy is a measured add or a hold. He has the job and the legs. I pay a sensible price for a starter and save the crown for later.
2. Nabers stays in my lineup. I expect some early timing work with his new quarterback, and I start him through it.
3. Isaiah Likely goes on my watch list. He caught McCarthy's first touchdown pass as a Giant, which earns a look and nothing more yet.
4. I am not trading a big haul for McCarthy off one quarter. If a manager in your league wants a franchise-quarterback price, let them keep him, and I will look again after Sunday.