The Masking Tape Came Off Jonathan Taylor, And The Colts Are Talking Price

Folks, in Gordy's Oct. 28 column, my partner took you to the Colts' yard sale, pointed at the masking tape on Jonathan Taylor that read NOT FOR SALE and made his call: "Jonathan Taylor will still be a Colt when the trade deadline passes on Nov. 10."

This morning, somebody peeled the tape off. Adam Schefter reported that the Colts "now are open to trading star running back Jonathan Taylor," and that "Multiple teams have reached out to Indianapolis, and those talks are said to be active and ongoing". Ian Rapoport wrote that "those talks are ongoing and active."

By breakfast, the go-get-him frenzy had fitted Taylor for more jerseys than a mall kiosk. I need just one, and any color but Colts blue will do.

Exhibit A Is Two Posts Four Days Apart

On Tuesday, the day the Colts traded Quenton Nelson to the Seahawks and DeForest Buckner to the 49ers, @UnderdogNFL posted, "Schefter: Colts ownership doesn't want to trade Jonathan Taylor." This morning, @UnderdogNFL posted, "Schefter: Colts now open to trading Jonathan Taylor." The tape lasted four days.

Gordy's call, still pending, leaned on that first post and on the dead cap. In my rebuttal that day, I wrote that an owner's wish carries no dead cap. Like every truck I ever sold, a wish comes as is, with no warranty.

Exhibit B Is An Offer The Colts Already Turned Down

Tom Pelissero reported that the Colts "already turned down a 2027 second-round draft pick plus an additional pick" for Taylor, "making clear they’d want a premium to trade the face of the franchise." Your Honor, the word "premium" has never appeared on a NOT FOR SALE sign.

Jeremy Fowler wrote that "the interest in Taylor is real." In another post, Fowler said the teams on the other end of the phone value Taylor at a second-round pick and more.

Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports wrote that "The Vikings and Giants are among the favorites to land Jonathan Taylor," and @ProFootballTalk says the Broncos, Seahawks, Vikings, Packers and Giants have been "mentioned as potential destinations."

On my old lot, when a customer's first offer came in low, I said no and kept them in the chair. In my head, the truck was already sold. I was holding out for a better number. I call it the chair rule: whoever says no and keeps talking is selling. The Colts said no and kept talking.

When the seller says no and keeps you in the chair, the truck is already sold. All that is left is the number.

The Case For The Masking Tape

The defense starts with my own Exhibit B: a second-round pick plus another pick is a real offer, and the Colts said no. Pelissero also wrote that "The Colts' position on Jonathan Taylor hasn't changed: No player is off-limits in trade talks, but they'd want a lot to move their star RB." Pelissero added, "For now, he's a Colt".

Stephen Holder wrote that "if you get the right offer, you HAVE to trade him." Asked by a reader what the right offer is, Holder answered, "I would ask for a first rounder and hold firm for a while. They have plenty of time."

Then the money. Using its Week 9 figures, Spotrac puts the Colts' dead cap at $11.1 million this season ($5 million saved) and $10 million in 2027 ($11 million saved). Dead cap is real money, and Gordy is right to count it.

Gordy, by Pelissero's account, no player is off-limits, so that sign was written in pencil. The same post says the Colts would want "a lot" to move Taylor, and "a lot" is a price with the digits left blank. In the truck business, the blanks get filled in at the end of the month. This deadline is 10 days away.

So here is my call, Your Honor. Jonathan Taylor will be traded before the deadline passes on Nov. 10. It is the opposite of Gordy's call, and it leans on Exhibits A and B. Nothing is decided yet. On Nov. 10, one of us gets graded wrong in public.

What I Am Doing About It

1. I am starting Taylor Sunday against the Jaguars. Pelissero says he is "expected to play Sunday against the Jaguars." As of Monday, Mike Chappell, who covers the Colts, had him averaging 83.9 yards a game, on pace for 1,426.
2. I am holding him in redraft through the trade noise. PFF counts 84 touchdowns for him since 2020, second only to Derrick Henry's 94. If he stays, he starts for me. If a contender pays a premium for him, I think it plans to use him, and I like that ceiling.
3. In dynasty, if I am contending, I am buying now. Today his price comes with a question mark about where he plays. I like buying the question mark before it turns into a headline.
4. I am checking the news before lineup lock every week until Nov. 10. A midweek trade changes the plan.
5. I revisit on Nov. 10. That is the day both calls get graded. If mine misses, I will eat it here, loudly.