Josh Jacobs Got 27 Touches And Two Touchdowns. I Only Trust One Of Those Numbers.

Friends, Josh Jacobs scored two touchdowns Thursday night, and the people who read only the fantasy points are saying Jacobs is back. I read the rest of the box score. It is the most Gordy box score of the season, and I mean that as a warning.

The Packers beat the Panthers 27-19, per Matt Schneidman, and they are 5-3. In his second game since the Packers activated him before Week 7 at Detroit, Jacobs ran 21 times for 39 yards and caught six passes for 13 yards, per Zach Kruse.

He scored once on the ground, per FantasyPros, and once on a 4-yard catch that put him at 10,003 yards from scrimmage, per Weston Hodkiewicz. If you started him, you got paid.

Under Two Yards A Carry

Kruse, citing @pfref, calls Jacobs the "FIRST player in NFL history with 20+ rushes, fewer than 40 rushing yards, at least 6 catches and under 20 receiving yards in a single game". All told, that is 27 touches for 52 yards, and the running came in under two yards a carry.

Underdog NFL had Jacobs at 14 touches for 18 scrimmage yards in the first half. Schneidman wrote, "The Packers have 13 carries for 38 yards against the NFL's worst run defense." Then he noted that one reverse got 18 of those yards: "So otherwise 12 carries for 20 yards. Doesn’t seem there’s much space for Jacobs."

Later, Schneidman wrote, "Man, the Packers' run game is so bad. And Josh Jacobs doesn't look like he's fixing it." Kruse laid out the setup: "Josh Jacobs back. Aaron Banks back. Worst run defense in football in your place on a short week." His next line: "And the Packers run game is still dead."

The Trouble Predates Him

Neighbors, on Oct. 20, before his activation, Schneidman reported that the Packers ranked last with 2.11 yards after contact per rush, while Jacobs ranked 12th at 3.28 yards over 2024 and 2025. He asked, "Can he help save the league’s worst rushing attack?"

On Tuesday, Warren Sharp had Green Bay's run game "#32 in YPC (2.9)" this season and Jacobs at "3.3 YPC" in his return. Two games in, Jacobs has 32 rushes for 75 yards.

Eleven repairs on the same lawn mower have taught me that a good engine still bogs down in tall wet grass. I think the grass in Green Bay is tall, and it was tall before he got back.

The Timecard Rule

I love dependable volume, and Jacobs is getting it: 16 touches in Week 7 and 27 on Thursday. John Daigle posted the "Most expected fantasy points for a Packers RB this year" list. Jacobs's Week 8 is first and his Week 7 is second.

Touchdowns are another matter. I consider them the least dependable thing in football. My history minor insists I mention that Napoleon is supposed to have wanted lucky generals. He ended up on an island in the South Atlantic.

In my warehouse years, I built every schedule off the timecards. Now and then somebody found a twenty in the parking lot. Good for them. It never went in the budget. I call it the timecard rule: touches are the hours a back works, and the hours are what I pay for.

Pay a running back for his timecard. A touchdown is a twenty he found in the parking lot.

His Side Of The Ledger

Now the other column. Weston Hodkiewicz wrote "Great pass pro by Jacobs" about a 16-yard completion. On one drive, Jacobs ran for five yards on first down and two on second, and Hodkiewicz called it "just enough for Love to fire a 7-yard completion to Watson on a key third-and-2."

In Week 7, a 20-17 loss at Detroit, Athlon Sports credited him with "91 yards and a touchdown". He has scored in each of his two games back.

Schneidman summed it up overnight: "Packers can’t run, catch or kick ... Yet they’re still 5-3 heading into the mini bye." My father raised me on Cleveland football, where 5-3 with problems is a good year.

Chief, I concede the scoreboard. The points count. Anybody who started Jacobs on Thursday owes nobody an apology. That truck still has to make the trip to New England, though, and I would like a look at the transmission before anybody asks me to pay sticker price.

The Packers play at New England after the mini-bye, per Kruse. So here is my call. Josh Jacobs will get at least 18 carries against the Patriots.

It leans on Thursday's 21 rushes and on Daigle's list, though the Week 7 box score shows 11 rushes in his first game back. If he falls short, I will grade it here.

What I Am Doing About It

1. I am starting Jacobs at New England as an RB2. The touch count is a floor, and I start floors.
2. I am not counting on two touchdowns again. Without them, Thursday was 52 yards on 27 touches.
3. I am not paying a two-touchdown price in trade talks. If someone offers me that price for Jacobs, I listen.
4. In daily and best-ball formats, I bank on the touches. My numbers assume under two yards a carry.
5. I revisit after the Patriots game. If the carries hold and the yards come, I raise him. If the carries slip toward 11, so does the floor.