Lamar Jackson Is Out Indefinitely, And I Am Buying Derrick Henry By The Carry
Lamar Jackson is out indefinitely with a thumb injury, Tyler Huntley's turf toe is season-ending, and Joe Fagnano will start Thursday night against Jacksonville, per Adam Schefter. My 80-yard Derrick Henry call missed at Buffalo. Folks, I am buying Henry again, and this time I am buying the carries.
Filed Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 8:59 AM CST from Outside Tulsa, Oklahoma
Folks, the first exhibit today is my own mistake. On Oct. 29 I wrote, "Derrick Henry will rush for at least 80 yards against the Bills on Sunday." He finished with 11 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown in the 36-10 loss, per the ESPN box score. I missed by 27 yards, and the Our Calls tracker says so.
Lamar Jackson hurt his right thumb on the Ravens' first offensive play, per The Baltimore Sun, so the big shell rule went up for one snap. My call leaned on one quarterback's health, and I made it anyway. The miss is mine.
While I am paying debts, Gordy said Zach Charbonnet would get fewer than 10 carries against the Bears on Monday night, and Charbonnet got six, per the Seahawks.com box score. He was right, and I typed that sober so it counts.
The Quarterback Room Kept Shrinking
Wednesday morning, Adam Schefter reported that tests showed Tyler Huntley's turf toe is season-ending, that Jackson is out indefinitely with the thumb, and that "QB Joe Fagnano will start Thursday night vs. Jacksonville." Huntley is set for surgery, per Ian Rapoport.
Jackson will have surgery and go on injured reserve. Coach Jesse Minter called the injury potentially season-ending, per Tom Pelissero. Asked if it was season-ending IR, he said, per Jamison Hensley, "We’ll see." I hate it for both men.
Fagnano, a rookie, went 10 of 21 for 91 yards and an interception in relief Sunday. Behind him are Austin Reed, signed to the practice squad Monday, and Kedon Slovis, signed Tuesday off the Packers' practice squad, per Pelissero. The Ravens also worked out Adrian Martinez on Tuesday, and Pelissero wrote that "the Ravens' QB carousel continues to spin".
On the other sideline, Jaguars coach Liam Coen confirmed season-ending injuries for DaVon Hamilton and safety Eric Murray, per Rapoport.
The Sell Crowd Has Half A Case
The hype this morning has Henry finished without Jackson, and several fantasy accounts are telling you to sell him. They have the efficiency right. Before Sunday's game, Hensley had Henry at 4.5 yards per carry with Jackson and 3.3 without him, over 14 quarters each.
My case is volume. Thursday night the Ravens start a rookie who began Sunday as their No. 3 quarterback, with two quarterbacks signed this week behind him. I expect that offense to hand Henry the football, then hand it to him again. Tuesday morning, fantasy analyst Michael F. Florio wrote, "Yeah just direct snap to Derrick Henry all night". That is a joke with a game plan inside it.
The fireworks business also taught me what happens when the big shell stays in the crate. Every eye drops to the ground show, and you light it all night anyway. That is how I read Hensley's split. I am amending the big shell rule with the crate rule: when the quarterback is out, buy the running back for his carries and live with the yards per carry.
When the big shell stays in the crate, the ground show runs all night. Everybody sees it coming. You light it anyway.
One softer note. Florida Times-Union columnist Ryan O'Halloran calls Henry one of the best players ever from the Jacksonville area, and notes he is "on the cusp of being seventh in all-time NFL rushing yards and could do it against the #Jaguars on Thursday." I would pour a bourbon for that.
The Evidence Against Me
Start with Buffalo. Henry got 11 of the Ravens' 19 rushing attempts, per ESPN, and Jeff Zrebiec counted 23 offensive snaps for Henry and 25 for Justice Hill, out of 51. Another lopsided score Thursday could keep Henry on the sideline.
Then the offensive line. During Sunday's game, Zrebiec wrote that "this OL has been absolutely dreadful today", then added, "I'm not sure how this gets better anytime soon." That line is why my number counts carries.
Then the calendar. On Sunday night, Zrebiec wrote, "Do you listen on Henry? A number of teams need backs." The trade deadline is Tuesday, Nov. 10, and a Henry trade before then is a live risk.
Gordy, I sold used trucks, and a man can buy the same truck twice for two different jobs. Last week I bought Henry's yards per carry. This week I am buying his workload. Sign wherever you like.
So here is my call. Derrick Henry will get at least 20 carries against the Jaguars on Thursday night. It goes on the Our Calls tracker, and we grade it after Thursday's game. If it misses, you will read that here first.
What I Am Doing About It
- I am starting Derrick Henry Thursday night. Expect volume, and keep your yards-per-carry hopes near the 3.3.
- I am staying off Zay Flowers and the Ravens' passing game until the quarterback room settles. Flowers had no catch on five targets Sunday, per Hensley.
- I am not adding a Ravens quarterback outside superflex desperation. I am rooting for Fagnano and leaving the waiver wire alone.
- If you have Jackson in dynasty, hold him. Nobody outside the building knows the timeline.
- I am watching the Nov. 10 deadline. A Henry trade would change everything above.
Chief's Verdict
Start Derrick Henry Thursday night and expect volume. Stay off the Ravens' passing game, hold Jackson in dynasty and watch the Nov. 10 deadline. My call, on the record: Derrick Henry will get at least 20 carries against the Jaguars on Thursday night.
Gordy’s Rebuttal
Unsolicited, as always
Chief closed one Henry call and opened another in the same column. He has never closed a bar tab that fast, and the one from 2014 is still open. Neighbors, I concede he owned the miss plainly and put 20 carries on the record where we can grade it Thursday night. But Hensley had Henry at 3.3 yards a carry without Jackson, and Zrebiec called the line "absolutely dreadful". Twenty carries behind that line could be a long shift for short pay. My Charbonnet call landed, and I will leave it there. My father raised me on Cleveland football. I have watched plenty of running backs carry the ball all night, and few of those nights ended well.
Keep Digging
Lamar Jackson Practiced Three Times This Week. The Report Said Limited Every Time.
Lamar Jackson is questionable for Sunday against the Bengals after three limited practices. On Friday he called the injury a high-ankle sprain. Jeremy Fowler's source calls him 50/50, and a decision may not come until Sunday morning. Friends, my rule was built for full or nothing, and this week brought neither.
Lamar Jackson Has A Realistic Chance To Return. The Practice Report Gets The Last Word.
Adam Schefter reported Wednesday morning that Lamar Jackson has a realistic chance to return from a sprained left ankle for Sunday's game at Cleveland. Last week his coach said he could play without practicing. Jackson then missed three straight days of practice and was ruled out. Friends, set your lineup by the practice report.
Lamar Jackson Was A Full Participant Wednesday, And Derrick Henry Got The Good News
Lamar Jackson was a full participant in Ravens practice Wednesday for the first time since spraining his left ankle. Matt Zenitz reports he is on track to play Sunday at Buffalo. Folks, Derrick Henry has averaged 4.5 yards a carry with Jackson and 3.3 without him. I am buying the running back.