I Bought Derrick Henry By The Carry And Forgot To Check The Crate For Powder

Folks, I am grading myself before anybody else gets the chance. On Nov. 4 I wrote, "Derrick Henry will get at least 20 carries against the Jaguars on Thursday night." He finished with 17 carries for 57 yards and no touchdown in the 33-10 loss, per the ESPN box score. I have run the arithmetic sober and otherwise, and 17 still comes up three short of 20.

The Our Calls tracker says miss, and it is right. That makes two straight Henry misses, counting my 80-yard call. I will wear this one, then fix the rule that walked me into it.

Thursday Night, Itemized

The Ravens fell to 4-5 with a fourth straight loss, to a Jaguars team whose +108 point differential is 50 points better than any other team's, per ProFootballTalk. Joe Fagnano, in his first career start, went 10-of-18 for 60 yards with two interceptions. Jamison Hensley noted that Fagnano attempted one pass that went over 10 yards in the air, and that his 3.3 yards per attempt "was the fewest in a game this season."

Asked how much his ankle injury limited him, Fagnano said, per Hensley, "No excuses. I got to play better." I respect that. I should have priced this offense before I priced the carries.

Hensley also quoted Henry, who did not dress it up: "Wasn't good enough. We got to be better. They were a better team. Same story." Henry added, "I don't have the magical answer." Neither do I, and I am the one who sold you 20 carries.

He did move to seventh on the NFL's all-time rushing list Thursday night, per ProFootballTalk, and I poured the bourbon I promised Wednesday.

The Crate Rule Gets An Amendment

On Wednesday I sold you the crate rule: when the quarterback is out, buy the running back for his carries and live with the yards per carry. I lived with them, and his longest run went 8 yards, per ESPN. The volume pitch sounds wonderful on a Wednesday because nobody has to block for it.

ProFootballTalk put it plainly: "Derrick Henry's production has plummeted without Lamar Jackson this season." With Jackson, Michael David Smith has Henry at 4.6 yards a carry, 97 yards a game and seven touchdowns in 3.5 games. Without him: 3.4 yards a carry, 64 yards a game and one touchdown in 5.5 games.

The amendment is aimed at me. Buying carries without a functional offense is buying empty boxes, and on Thursday 17 carries came out of the crate as 57 yards. I bought that crate by the pound and never checked for powder. From now on, I buy carries only when the offense can stay on schedule.

Carries are the boxes and the offense is the powder. Buy the boxes without the powder and you spend Thursday night lighting cardboard.

The Exhibit The Crate Missed

The evidence was standing in the same backfield. Justice Hill took nine carries for 85 yards, and his 65-yard touchdown was the Ravens' only rushing score, per ESPN. When an offense cannot stay on schedule, I want the back who can score from 65 yards out, because he does not need the next play to work.

I will print the evidence against my new case, too: take away the long run and Hill had 20 yards on his other eight carries. One box had powder in it, and the rest was cardboard.

Gordy, hang the tag on me. I read the odometer and never checked for an engine, a mistake I have made before with a boat. This call starts with the engine.

So here is my call. Derrick Henry will finish with fewer than 60 rushing yards against the Chargers on Monday night, Nov. 16. That number is about the offense around him, which got him 57 on Thursday. It goes on the Our Calls tracker, and we grade it after that game. If it misses, you will read it here first, same as this morning.

What I Am Doing About It

1. I am sitting Derrick Henry in Week 10, or fading him hard if my bench is thin. He stays there until this offense proves it can stay on schedule.
2. I am treating Justice Hill as the Ravens' explosive back while Lamar Jackson is out. He is a dart with powder in it, built for deep leagues and desperate weeks.
3. I am staying off Fagnano and the Ravens' passing game. I am rooting for him and starting nobody who depends on him.
4. I am leaving the trade-deadline chatter alone. Asked whether he plans to still be on this team, Henry replied, per Hensley, "I have not mentioned me going anywhere else." I take him at his word through Tuesday.
5. I am waiting for the quarterback room to change the script. If it has not by Monday night, Nov. 16, the Chargers box score decides my next Henry move.