Bucky Irving Ran For 165 On 54 Percent Of The Snaps. I Am Buying The Rest.

Grown men with push notifications, I know what your phone did Thursday night. It buzzed for a touchdown catch, a 72-yard run, a touchdown run and a career high, and I toasted every one with bourbon and whatever cola was closest.

Friday morning it buzzed again. Greg Auman had the snap counts: "Irving rushed for 165 yards while only playing 54 percent of the offensive snaps."

Fifty-four percent. Remember it, because I am about to ask you to spend money on it.

What Happened In Dallas

The 0-4 Buccaneers opened Week 5 in Dallas without Baker Mayfield or Antoine Winfield Jr., both ruled out, and won 24-16 with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback. It was Tampa's first win of the season and Daniels' first career win, and he put it best: "That's a W. Go Bucs, baby!"

Irving ran 21 times for 165 yards, 7.9 a carry, with 175 scrimmage yards, a 5-yard touchdown catch and a 1-yard touchdown run.

The Case For The Prosecution

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, Exhibit A is the snap count. Irving did all of that while sitting out 46 percent of the offensive snaps. A back who sets a career high in part-time work has room to grow, and room to grow is the only thing I buy.

Exhibit B is the trend line. PFF Fantasy had him at 7.8 PPR points in Week 3 and 6.1 in Week 4. His 31.5 on Thursday led everybody in the game and is more than double those two weeks combined.

Exhibit C is the record book. His previous high was 152, in a 2024 overtime game against the Panthers, per Auman. He beat it by 13 and closed out the win with a 22-yard run for a first down.

Exhibit D is the game plan. Tampa ran for 241 yards and held the ball 39:21 to 20:39, per Calvin Watkins of the Dallas Morning News. Irving had 165 of them, and his 81.8 PFF grade led Tampa's offense, per Pewter Report.

Sustained, in part, and I will read the defense's exhibits myself, because a lawyer who hides bad evidence deserves to lose. But the snap count belongs to Irving's own coaches, and only they can change it.

The Defense Has Exhibits Too, Mostly About The Defense

Greg Auman, with Tampa past 200 rushing yards: "Cowboys came in with this as an absolute weak point, and Tampa Bay has done well to attack it as constantly as they have."

Todd Archer, citing ESPN Research: Dallas gave up a season-high 419 yards Thursday and has allowed "at least 375 yards in all five games this season," the longest such start in Cowboys history.

Marcus Mosher of Locked On Cowboys: "3rd and 21. Against an UDFA QB."

And the one that hurts. Late, up 24-10, Tampa passed on a field goal at the 1 and gave the carry to Sean Tucker, who was ruled short. Irving had scored from the 1 earlier. When the coaches went for the knockout, they picked another back.

Jon Machota of The Athletic noted Jerry Jones has said several times over the last three months, sometimes in jest, that the defense can't be any worse than last year. Machota: "Five games in, he can’t be too sure about that any more."

The Number That Settles It

Fantasy points come from how much work a back gets and what he does with it. Thursday, Irving did full-time damage with part-time work against that defense. Efficiency like that is a houseguest that leaves with the matchup. A bigger role would stay. Next week's snap share tells you which one you watched.

Yards are a running back's opinion of the defense. Snaps are the coaches' opinion of the running back.

I am buying before that answer arrives, because a running back's price moves on last week's box score. By Friday morning Sleeper was asking people to rank Irving rest of season against D'Andre Swift and Bhayshul Tuten. That is a price moving on yards Dallas helped write. If his snap share rises next week, the price moves again and everybody sees why.

What I Am Doing About It

1. Start Irving, and buy him from the manager who keeps quoting Todd Archer. Twenty-one carries in part-time work means the ball finds him when he plays. That manager has the best argument in this article and the most reason to sell, so pay for a 54 percent back and let the bigger role ride along.
2. Watch one number next week: 54. If his snap share climbs above it, the role changed and I pay what it costs. If it holds or drops, Thursday was a great matchup and I price him like one.
3. Treat Daniels as a deep superflex or 2QB dart, only if Mayfield is ruled out again. I am glad he got his win. I want to see one with an ordinary running game behind it first.
4. Start running backs against Dallas until the streak breaks. Any back facing that defense gets a bump until it holds somebody under 375 yards. One caution from Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram: "Brian Schottenheimer said he’s going to be evaluating things this weekend and making some decisions."

Gordy enjoys reminding people I once bought a boat without checking for a motor. I have grown. This time I checked: the motor is the snap count, it ran at 54 percent, and I am paying a 54 percent price. If it runs hotter next week, I will pay for the rest.