The Patriots Are Expected To Activate A.J. Brown, And I Am Starting Him Again

Degenerates, it is Saturday morning outside Tulsa, there is bourbon in my coffee for courage, and I am about to recommend a man I already recommended once, with total confidence. You all know how that Wednesday ended. I am doing it anyway.

At 7:38 this morning, Rapoport reported that the Patriots "will likely activate WR AJ Brown off Injured Reserve" to play the Jets on Sunday. Tom Pelissero followed: "Barring a setback, the Patriots are expected to activate star WR A.J. Brown from injured reserve today and he’ll play Sunday against the Jets."

Mark Daniels wrote that "he'll return tomorrow against the Jets". As I type this, nothing I have read makes it official, so confirm he is active before your league locks.

From The Opener To Saturday Morning

Brown left the opener, a Wednesday loss to the Seahawks, with what Rapoport reported as a high-ankle sprain. X-rays were negative for a fracture, an MRI confirmed the sprain, and Adam Schefter reported he would need no surgery and would miss 4 to 6 weeks.

He went on injured reserve, and Mike Reiss listed the four games he would miss: the Steelers, Jaguars, Bills and Raiders. On Wednesday the Patriots opened his 21-day practice window, and Rapoport wrote: "May be a bit early to return from a high-ankle sprain, but he’s trying."

Brown was limited Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, and the final report listed him as questionable. Mike Vrabel said a decision would likely come Saturday.

Exhibits For The Prosecution

Members of the jury, the managers on X asking whether to start him are pricing Friday's injury report. The questionable tag kept New England's options open, and an activation off IR means the team has decided he is ready.

Exhibit A: Brown pushed to practice when even Rapoport thought it might be early, and the Patriots let him. Exhibit B: three limited practices, which Rapoport called "A bit earlier than expected". Exhibit C: Doug Kyed called this morning's news "Not a huge surprise based on some of the things we saw in practice this week."

Exhibit D is the quarterback. Drake Maye said Wednesday, per Daniels, "There are not many like him that are around in this league." The analysts back the start, too. Injury analyst Dr. Jesse Morse wrote, "If he’s active, you start him." So would fantasy analyst Zain Dhanani: "he’s a high end WR2 for me".

I call this the transaction rule: when the tag and the transaction disagree, bet the transaction.

A questionable tag is a team holding its cards. An activation is the team turning them over.

The Evidence I Am Required To Hand Over

Not one of his three practices was full. Vrabel on Friday, per Kyed: "I think he looks OK, like everybody, some good plays, some bad plays." He added that he is checking where "his conditioning level" is.

This morning, Kyed wrote: "Curious to see what A.J. Brown's workload is going to be with the Patriots playing two games in five days (Sunday vs. Jets, Thursday vs. Bears)." On Thursday, Daniels reported that Brown said "the long term is more important than the short term."

Even my expert witnesses put a cap on him. Morse: "He’s more of a WR2 this week than a WR1." Dhanani's ranking, in his own words, "would be higher if it wasn’t his 1st game back".

The last exhibit has my name on it. On Sept. 8, I told you on this site: "Start A.J. Brown with total confidence." I was right that he would play. He left that very game hurt. Everybody who started him on my word paid for it, and I take that on the chin with no excuses.

Gordy, this time the Patriots are handing over the keys, and they watched him drive all week. I will grant you the interstate, which in this case is Thursday against the Bears.

What I Am Doing About It

1. If Brown is active, he starts for me as a WR2. Morse and Dhanani both have him there. Reiss's Saturday notes list a "4p deadline" for roster moves, so confirm the activation after that, then confirm he is active before your league locks.
2. If somebody in your league dropped him during the IR weeks, check the waiver wire today. Four games on IR wears on people. If he is there, claim him before the move posts.
3. In dynasty and rest-of-season leagues, I am buying now. His price still carries the IR stint and Friday's tag. I would rather pay the IR price than the highlight price after a big Sunday.
4. Thursday against the Bears is its own decision. Kyed is curious about the workload, and so am I. I set that lineup after I see how much Brown plays Sunday.
5. Drake Maye gets a bump in my book. He practiced in full all week, and I like him more with Brown on the field.
6. TreVeyon Henderson gets my September rule again: sit him until he is confirmed active. He is questionable with an ankle, and per Reiss he said, "Nothing is guaranteed, God willing hoping I can play".

I am a Raiders fan, so buying back into something that already hurt me is a skill I have practiced every fall since I was a boy.